May, 2020
- Our current recommended asset allocation is 50% equities, up from recent levels; 30% bonds, stable from recent levels; and 20% cash down from recent levels.
- Standard & Poor's 500 corporate profit growth rates are now reported to have declined 3.0 percent year-to-year during the first quarter of 2020 on a twelve-month trailing basis. This was the first quarter of decline by this measure in the past eighteen. Profit growth is now projected to be down around 10% over the next 4 quarters (through 03/21) per Standard and Poor's current estimates. This is down from earlier estimates, and higher than potentially more negative estimates from other sources. Other sources are now projecting more negative profit growth and negative domestic and international economic growth due to coronavirus effects.
- General domestic equity markets have now bounced back significantly, due to speculation regarding ultimate coronavirus seriousness and related expectations of a quicker economic recovery. Businesses are still reporting production disruptions, and forecasters are adjusting growth expectations down, as noted above.
- Our moderate and aggressive balanced benchmark accounts were down 1.12% and 3.00%, respectively, year-to-date through April, 2020. They were up 12.63% and 18.74%, respectively in 2019. Please see our Performance Data Sources section for appropriate benchmark comparison sources. We continue to assess our asset allocation percentages relative to growth expectations and market conditions on a regular basis.