Allocation & Performance Updates
August, 2018
- Our current recommended asset allocation is 70% equities, a slight increase from recent levels; 20% bonds, a decrease from recent levels; and 10% cash, stable from recent levels. As, and if growth conditions and expectations continue to improve, we will likely continue to increase exposure to equities and potentially higher yield bonds but not longer-term higher quality treasury or corporate bonds.
- Corporate profit growth rates are now reported to have grown over 20% year-to-year during the second quarter of 2018 on a 12-month trailing basis, This was the seventh quarter of growth by this measure in the past twelve. It was the ninth quarter in a row of sequential growth since that measure began declining in the third quarter of 2014. Profit growth is projected to be up in the low teens over the next 4 quarters (through 9/19) due to tax cuts and continued economic growth per Standard and Poor's estimates. Other various sources are projecting more conservative growth.
- General equity markets and bond markets have become more volatile as profit growth sustainability in the face of increasing interest rates has become more controversial. Treasury and investment grade corporate bond markets have recently begun to struggle as interest rates have risen. High yield corporate bond markets are still holding up relatively well. (See the performance Data Sources section of this website.)
- Our moderate and aggressive balanced benchmark accounts were up 9.17% and 11.43%, respectively, year-to-date through September, 2018. They were up 16.60% and 22.24%, respectively in 2017. Please see our Performance Data Sources section for appropriate benchmark comparison sources. We continue to assess our asset allocation percentages relative to growth expectations and market conditions on a regular basis.