October, 2019
- Our current recommended asset allocation is 50% equities, stable from recent levels; 30% bonds, stable from recent levels; and 20% cash also stable from recent levels.
- Corporate profit growth rates are now reported to have grown slightly over 10% year-to-year during the second quarter of 2019 on a 12-month trailing basis, This was the eleventh quarter of growth by this measure in the past sixteen. It was the thirteenth quarter in a row of sequential growth since that measure began declining in the third quarter of 2014. Profit growth is projected to be up in the low-to-mid double digit range over the next 4 quarters (through 09/20) per Standard and Poor's estimates. This is stable from earlier estimates, and higher than low to mid-single digit estimates from other sources.
- General domestic equity markets have recovered significantly from the fourth quarter of last year when trade and tariff and Federal Reserve interest rates were prominent concerns. Recent renewed trade and tariff rhetoric from the President and his administration have caused the equity markets to remain volatile back off from recent high levels. Interest rates have declined as the Federal Reserve has lowered its discount rate in an environment of seemingly slowing growth and still low inflation.
- Our moderate and aggressive balanced benchmark accounts were up 7.88% and 11.61%, respectively, year-to-date through September, 2019. They were down 1.30% and 2.28%, respectively in 2018. Please see our Performance Data Sources section for appropriate benchmark comparison sources. We continue to assess our asset allocation percentages relative to growth expectations and market conditions on a regular basis.