Allocation & Performance Updates
April, 2021
- Our current general recommended asset allocation is 65-70% equities, up from recent levels; 20-25% bonds, down from recent levels; and 10% cash down from recent levels.
- Standard & Poor's 500 corporate earnings per share are calculated to have been down 14.0% for the full year 2020 vs. 2019 on a consensus analyst estimate basis, per Yardeni Research at https://www.yardeni.com/pub/yriearningsforecast.pdf . They are expected to be up about 26.7% in 2021 on a consensus basis according to Yardini Research. Year-over-year twelve month trailing earnings growth is calculated to have troughed in the fourth quarter of 2020. It is expected to rise to the above referenced positive growth level for the full year of 2021. Again, all on a consensus basis per Yardini Research.
- General domestic equity markets have now rebounded to achieve all-time highs from corona virus impact lows in March of 2020. This is due to changing expectations regarding economic and corporate profit growth, consistent with the above 2020 and 2021 observations. Continued government stimulus, and corona virus vaccine progress are also significantly contributing to this potential earnings growth.
- Our moderate and aggressive balanced benchmark accounts were up 2.05% and 3.48%, respectively, year-to-date through March, 2021. They were up 23.00% and 28.83%, respectively in 2020. Please see our Performance Data Sources section for appropriate benchmark comparison sources. We continue to assess our asset allocation percentages relative to growth expectations and market conditions on a regular basis.