Allocation & Performance Updates
JuLY, 2018
- Our current average asset allocation is 65% equities, similar to recent levels; 25% bonds, a decrease from recent levels; and 10% cash, an increase from recent levels. As, and if growth conditions and expectations continue to improve, we will likely continue to increase exposure to equities and potentially higher yield bonds but not longer-term higher quality treasury or corporate bonds.
- Corporate profit growth rates are now reported to have grown over 20% year-to-year during the second quarter of 2018 on a 12-month trailing basis, This was the seventh quarter of growth by this measure in the past twelve. It was the ninth quarter in a row of sequential growth since that measure began declining in the third quarter of 2014. Profit growth is projected to be up 20% or more over the next 4 quarters (through 6/19) due to tax cuts and continued economic growth per Standard and Poor's estimates. Other various sources are projecting more conservative growth.
- General equity markets and bond markets have become more volatile as profit growth sustainability in the face of increasing interest rates has become more controversial. Treasury and investment grade corporate bond markets have recently begun to struggle as interest rates have risen. High yield corporate bond markets are still holding up relatively well. (See Performance Data Sources section of this website.)
- Our moderate and aggressive balanced benchmark accounts were up 5.72% and 7.32%, respectively, year-to-date through July, 2018. They were up 16.60% and 22.24%, respectively in 2017. Please see our Performance Data Sources section for appropriate benchmark comparison sources. We continue to assess our asset allocation percentages relative to growth expectations and market conditions on a regular basis.