December, 2019
- Our current recommended asset allocation is 60% equities, up slightly from recent levels; 30% bonds, stable from recent levels; and 10% cash down slightly from recent levels.
- Standard & Poor's 500 corporate profit growth rates are now reported to have grown 1.9% year-to-year during the third quarter of 2019 on a twelve-month trailing basis. This was the twelfth quarter of growth by this measure in the past seventeen. It was the first quarter of the last fourteen that sequential quarterly growth declined on a twelve-month trailing basis. Profit growth is projected to be up in the low double digit range over the next 4 quarters (through 09/20) per Standard and Poor's estimates. This is stable from earlier estimates, and higher than low to mid-single digit estimates from other sources.
- General domestic equity markets are now at record levels since the fourth quarter of last year, when trade and tariff and rising Federal Reserve interest rates were prominent concerns. Recent expectations for trade and tariff policy progress have improved significantly, but remain volatile. Interest rates have declined, but are stabilizing after the Federal Reserve lowered its short-term rate in an environment of slowing growth and still low inflation.
- Our moderate and aggressive balanced benchmark accounts were up 10.91% and 16.22%, respectively, year-to-date through November, 2019. They were down 1.30% and 2.28%, respectively in 2018. Please see our Performance Data Sources section for appropriate benchmark comparison sources. We continue to assess our asset allocation percentages relative to growth expectations and market conditions on a regular basis.